Dayton Moore Extension In The Works
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/08/royals-considering-extension-for-moore.html
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
FIRE DAYTON MOORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis Trade Revisited
On December 5th, 2007, the Florida Marlins traded
star 3B Miguel Cabrera, and star LHP Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers, in
return they received six minor leaguers, LHP Andrew Miller, RHP Dallas Trahern,
RHP Eulogio de la Cruz, RHP Burke Badenhop, CF Camron Maybin, and C Mike
Rabelo.
The Tigers were immediately christened as the WS favorites
heading into 2008. They were
receiving a top slugger, who was just 25, and had averaged 31 HR, 40 2B, 102 R,
115 RBI, and a .947 OPS over the previous four seasons. His defense left something to be
desired, but they solved that by moving him to first base. In 2008, despite a dissapointing season
for the Tigers, Cabrera set career highs in homeruns (37), and RBI’s
(127). The only dark spot was his
career low .349 OBP, it’s back up to .407 in 2009. Cabrera is in the midst of another stellar season for
Detroit.
Dontrelle Willis, was seemingly already losing it when he
was traded. In his five seasons
with the Marlins, he had had a good rookie season, and one ace type year. His low strikeout rate, coupled with an average walk
rate had never been encouraging, and his ERA was a bit on the high side for an
ace. He was a workhorse, but he
had been lucky on his BABIP’s.
Still, I don’t think anyone could have predicted how great a meltdown he
had. In 2008, Willis made 7 starts
for Detroit, pitching just 24 innings, he also had a 9.38 ERA, due to his walk
rate going off the charts, from 3.8 to 13.1. Willis was eventuallly demoted to Class A Lakeland, and
placed on the DL with an anxiety
disorder. In 2009, Willis halved
his 2008 BB rate, but it’s clear, he can no longer pitch. Unfortunatley for Detroit, they’re
stuck with a contract that will pay him $10 million this year, and $12 million
in 2010.
First off for the Marlins, its important to remember that
this was another salary dump, that said, one to the prospects. Andrew Miller has struggled in the
majors as a starter, when he was acquired, he was a 22-year-old phenom, who had
recorded a sub-3.00 ERA combined at Classes A+, AA, and AAA. He performed well at AA for the Fish in
’08, but fared poorly in ’09, falling all the way to Rookie ball, then settling
in as a 24-year-old at Double-A,
not good. Dallas Trahern was in
the same boat as Miller, just a year younger, but because of his low strikeout
rate, and a rising walk rate, he hasn’t played in the majors, and seems to be
walking backwards. Eulogio de la
Cruz is currently playing for the San Diego Padres, he had a solid fourth
starter year at Triple-A for the Marlins, and was traded to San Diego for a
PTBNL. Burke Badenhop has been
used as the Marlins long relief man this year, he’s been good enough, but it
seems to be his ceiling. Cameron
Maybin, the main prospect in the trade is putting up another good season in
Triple-AAA, however, his homerun power, and speed on the basepaths seem to have
dissapeared, and to compound matters, hasn’t hit in the majors. Mike Rabelo, is a catcher. He can field
well, but can’t hit a lick.
It’s hard to determine a winner for this trade, despite
their shortcomings, the prospects he Marlins received could still figure it
out. Florida wouldn’t have been
able to extend Cabrera or Willis, or re-sign them when they hit free agency. Detroit has received great production
from Miggy, but are stuck with the D-Train and his contract.
Early NL Cy Young Candidates: Edition 2
This is the second installment in the Early Cy Young
Candidates NL Series. For the
first installment, click here
The NL Cy Young race is shaping up to be extremly
close. All five of the contenders
here have a legitimate chance to win the award. They’re all great, but there’s no pitcher blowing away the
field.
1) Danny Haren, RHP, D-backs
Dan Haren has cooled off a little bit in the second half,
but his peripherals are still amazing.
Haren’s 2.74 ERA ranks 6th in the league, his 167 strikeouts
are 4th in the NL, he’s tied for second in complete games, and his
0.93 WHIP leads the league. Haren
has been helped by a low .248 BABIP, but he’s managed to maintain his gaudy
numbers even with his BABIP rising.
Haren is not only a strikeout pitcher, but a control specialist, he
walks just 1.3 batter per 9
innings. That, and a 8.6
SO/9 rate, contribute to his
league-leading 6.42 SO/BB
rate. As I covered in the first
installment, Haren has superb peripherals, but his meaningless 12-8 record,
he’s receiving just 4.5 runs per game in support. Haren’s record over a full season projects to be 16-11, not
representative of his ability, and unfortunatly, Cy voters won’t care about the
meaningful stats.
2) Tim Lincecum, RHP, Giants
Tiny Tim has set his eyes on back-to-back Cy Youngs. His numbers will appeal to any
voter. Lincecum is 12-3 this year,
not that it matters, and has a 2.37 ERA, good for 2nd place in the
NL, and a 1.04 WHIP, good for 3rd in the league. Lincecum is excellent in all other
categories too. Look at these
stats, 207 SO, 46 BB, 2.3 BB/9,
10.4 SO/9, 4.50 K/BB ratio. Oh
yeah, he also leads the league in complete games, and shutouts. Tim Lincecum dominated in 2008, he’s even better in 2009.
3) Matt Cain, RHP, Giants
In 2008, Lincecums’s teammate Matt Cain was arguably the
unluckiest pitcher in baseball.
His numbers were solid, but the Giants scored just 3.12 runs per game in
support of him. It’s safe to say
his luck has changed in 2009. Not
only has Cain upgraded hs performance, he’s 12-4, with a 2.43 ERA, and a 1.15 WHIP, he’s benefited from a low
.258 BABIP, and the Giants have scored a full run more in support of him. His peripherals aren’t amazing, but he
deserves to be considered along with his teammate.
4) Wandy Rodriguez, LHP, Astros
You can’t say Wandy Rodriguez came out of nowhere, because
this small-market late-bloomer always had talent. But you can say that he’s put it all together this
year. Rodriguez has stayed
healthy, and has been more durable than in previous years. He’s ramped up his strikeouts, and has
pulled down both his ERA, which is a sparkling 2.89, and his WHIP, which is a
servicable 1.25. Like Cain, Rodriguez,
doesn’t have great peripherals, but he’s a fringe candidate who deserves a
mention.
5) Chris
Carpenter, RHP, Cardinals
Chris Carpenter has returned to his 2005 form better than
anyone could of dreamed. Carpenter
is pitching even better than he did in ’05, with a 13-3 record, a 2.27 ERA,
tops in the league, a 0.97 WHIP, 2nd only to Haren, and incredible
durability, averaging a round 7 innings per start. Carpenter also only gives up 0.5 HR/9 innings, and walks
just 1.3 batters per 9. Carpenter
has gotten his job done this year and is a main reason why the Cardinals lead
the Cubs by 7 games in the central.
Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. This
race will come down to Carpenter, Lincecum, and Haren.
Follow-Up To Draft Idea
Take a look at this article from FanGraphs:
What?, The Commissioner Has A Good Idea?
The signing deadline is come
and gone. Of the thirty-two first
round selections, all but two signed.
HS LHP Matt Purke, will attend Texas Christian University instead of
signing with the Rangers, and HS CF LeVon Washington will attend Stanford
University, turning down an
opportunity to play for the Rays.
RHP Aaron Crow decided to delay his career again. The twenty-nine first-rounders who
signed will each receive an average of $2.46 million in bonus money.
After the deadline passed,
Commisioner Selig stated that he has a plan for a revised draft, “There’s
no question in my mind, in 2011, certainly a [hard] slotting system and a
worldwide draft are things we will be very aggressive in talking about,”, said Selig.
The plan would be discussed at the next CBA (collective bargaining
agreement).
Selig’s plan, if accepted at the next CBA,
would be put into action at the 2012 Draft, and could solve a large part of
baseball’s financial gap. While
the teams with the worst records are conceivably given the first chance at the
best players, their selections are often financially motivated, fearing that a
top player would not wish to sign with a bad team unless blown away with a
top-dollar offer. One example of
this is the Pittsburgh Pirates’ selection of RHP Brian Bullington first overall
in the 2002 draft, over players such as BJ Upton, Scott Kazmir, and Zack
Greinke. That is the problem that
a hard slotting system would help.
As for the world draft idea, it would be a blessing to poorer teams, as
they consistently lose out on top prospects in the international market because
of money demands. Selig’s two
ideas, if both approved by the MLBPA, could fix baseball’s broken draft. So I guess “Bud” Selig actually had a
good idea after all.
Keys To Success/Failure: Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals
Keys To Failure
Hittting
Bullpen
Fielding
Hitting
The Royals hitting has been
nothing short of atrocious. Billy
Butler and Alberto Callaspo have been great, but two good players don’t make a
team. At shortstop, Mike
Aviles/Willie Bloomquist/Yuniesky Betancourt has been a black hole. Besides Butler, who’s done a fantastic
job, and catcher Miguel Olivo, no player has showed any power to speak of. The Royals are near the bottom of the
AL in nearly every hitting category.
Anything Else?
Bullpen
Besides amazing closer Joakim
Soria, the ERA’s of the members of the Royals’ bullpen are as follows, 4.85,
6.17, 4.15, 6.20, 4.98, 5.97, 4.24, 5.96.
Bottom line is, while the Royals have the beginnings of a good rotation,
Bullpen-Soria=Horrendous. There
isn’t anything else to say.
Fielding
When I wrote my Keys To
Failure: Nationals post, Washington was the worst fielding team in
baseball. Now, with “Black Hole”
Betancourt, Alberto Callaspo, Jose Guillen, and “Hmmmm, What Posistion Should I
Play Poorly Today” Teahen, the Royals hold that distinction.
A Solution
FIRE DAYTON
MOORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FIRE DAYTON
MOORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FIRE DAYTON
MOORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Coors Field Of The American League
Welcome to Rangers Ballpark
in Arlington
The most hitter-friendly park
not named Coors Field.
Since it opened in 1994,
Rangers Ballpark has been a boon to the home team. Since its opening, the Rangers home .OBP, from now on
referred to as hOBP, has been on average, 29 points higher than their rOBP,
(road .OBP. Another large
difference is visible in the slugging category. Since the park’s opening, the Rangers hSLG has been on
average, 49 points higher than their rSLG. Taking into account both stats, the Rangers tOPS has been a
******** 76 points higher, on average, than their rOPS. This is not just a case of home-field
advantage. All teams have
traditionally hit well at Rangers Ballpark.
This park has made hitters
great. The great Ivan Rodriguez, lauded
as much for his bat as for his fantastic glove is one of the beneficiaries of
this park.
Ivan Rodriguez, Career,
Rangers Ballpark: .326/.362/.533
Ivan Rodriguez, Career, Everywhere
Else: .289/.328/.447
While Rodriguez, whose career
has included not only 13 years in Texas, but also six years combined in
Florida, Detroit, New York, and Houston, played out his prime in Texas;
certainly effecting part of the large deficit in his numbers. But a gap as big as this, 37 points in
BA, 34 points in OBP, 86 points in SLG, and a ******** 120 points in OPS, can not be
explained solely by his age.
Steroids could play a role in this, but I don’t trust Jose Canseco. The main point is that excluding
outside factors, Ivan Rodriguez benefited greatly from Rangers Ballpark.
It may not have as great a
reputation as Coors Field, but Rangers Ballpark is a great asset for Texas;
fullheartadly deserving the title of Coors Field of the American League.
The Cubs’ Dilemma, Plus What The Blue Jays Should Do With Alex Rios
After this season, one of the Cubs’ top starting pitchers, Rich Harden becomes a free agent. Harden is one of many pitchers who show an ability to dominate when healthy, but due to injury concerns, cannot go 6, 7 innings consistently. Harden was superb in 2008 for the Cubs, going 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA, and a 0.97 WHIP in 12 starts after being acquired at the trade deadline, however, injury concerns caused him to throw only 71 innings for Chicago, not quite 6 innings per start.
Harden has had an up-and-down 2009, complete with HR struggles, and back issues. Through 19 starts this year, Harden is 7-7 with a 4.41 ERA, and a 1.35 WHIP. His high ERA and WHIP are products of a high BABIP, and a regression from a low BABIP in 2008. Despite his struggles, Harden has shown almost identical strikeout and walk rates in 2008 and 2009.
With all the injuries the Cubs have had this year, and the fact that Harden has dominated in his combined full season with the Cubs, it is necessary that the Cubs re-sign Harden as he hits free agency. However, with Harden’s injury history, the Cubs, or any team for that matter, should commit to a deal longer than two-years. The optimal deal would be a 2-year $12-16 million contract, but who knows what Harden will demand, or receive with all his potential. The Cubs do not have a player who could step in take over Harden’s rotation spot, which is why they must re-sign him this offseason.
- Alex Rios and the Blue Jays
Alex Rios
Temperental bust, awarded a 7-year/$70 million, heavily backloaded contract, based on one good year. Rios has shown that his ceiling is only a 20/20 player. He’ll lose part of that speed over time, for sure. If the Blue Jays hang onto him, which seemed to be their only choice because of his contract, they would eventually be paying 12.5 million dollars for a solely above-average, hitter and an average fielder. But now the unthinkable has happened. A MLB team, likely the White Sox, has claimed Rios on waivers. The Blue Jays now have ’till 1:30 ET tomorrow to trade Rios to the claiming team, or let him go to the claiming team for nothing. This is a golden opportunity for the Jays to shed payroll, they should just let Rios go. Why any team would want Rios is just puzzling. Once again, a golden opportunity to let Rios walk away.
Red Sox Need A Shortstop
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