The Simulator says………….

Saturday, May 8

Marlins 63% @
Nationals 62% 

Braves 55% @
Phillies 45%

Cardinals 68% @
Pirates 32%

Giants 46% @ Mets 54%

Cubs 59% @ Reds 41%

Padres 64% @ Astros
36%

Brewers 59% @
D-backs 41%

Rockies 67% @
Dodgers 33%

Orioles 30% @ Twins 70%

Orioles 47% @ Twins 53%

Tigers 59% @ Indians
41%

Yankees 55% @ Red
Sox 45%

Royals 50% @ Rangers 50%

Blue Jays 56% @ White
Sox 44%

Rays 63% @ Athletics
37%

Angels 43% @ Mariners
57%

Correctly predicted 8/15 games on May 8th.

According
to the St.
Petersburg Times, the Rays have traded 2B/3B Akinori Iwamura to the Pirates
for RHP Jesse Chavez.  The deal was
a sign-and-trade, with Tampa Bay picking up Iwamura’s $4.5 million option, and
then sending him to Pittsburgh.

         Pittsburgh has
seemingly filled their infield gap with Iwamura, who has started 215 games at
second, and 120 games at third in his MLB career.  Iwamura, who has recorded a batting line of .281/.354/.393
in 1526 plate appearances, will most likely remain at second base for
Pittsburgh, unless they opt to play Andy Laroche there, in which case, Iwamura
would move back to third.

         Even though
everything that Pirates GM Neal Hutington does is suprising and half-witted,
the baffling thing about this deal is, why did Huntington give away a relief
pitcher who is under team control for five more years, for one year of a player who consistently
is not worth much more than his salary; in a year when the Pirates wil be, as
usual, not in contention?

         As for the reliever,
Jesse Chavez, Tampa recorded a steal, not that that’s hard to do when your
trade partner is the Pirates.  In
his rookie year, Chavez recorded a league-average 4.01 ERA in 67.1 innings, but
showed promise with strong peripherals. 
Excluding his 1.5 HR/9 rate, Chavez’s 6.3 K/9,  2.9 BB/9, and 2.14 K/BB rates are quite
promising.  Chavez’s repetoire is
strong, with a 94 mph fastball, strong, hard slider, and an above-average
changeup,

         Final analysis of
the deal, Rays get a four-fer, dumping Aki’s salary, getting a quality
reliever, freeing up space for both Ben Zobrist, and Jason Bartlett, and
allowing more playing time for Sean Rodriguez in a super-utility role.  Pittsburgh traded away the future again.

Trade Grades

Tampa Bay- A-

Pittsburgh- C-

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to
host the Philadelphia Phillies tonight in Game 3 of the NLDS, the focus is on
this rematch of the 2007 NLDS matchup; a series the Rox won as part of their
“Rocktober” run to the World Series. 
But during tonight’s game, a dark cloud will hang over  the visitors clubhouse at Coors Field.

            On
this day, three years ago, October 11, 2006, former Phillies pitcher Cory Lidle
was killed when his two-seat plane crashed into an apartment building in the
Bronx.  Nine of Lidle’s Phillies
teammates play tonight in Colorado. 
Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley, Brett Myers, Shane
Victorino, Ryan Madson, Jimmy Rollins, and Cole Hamels all played with Lidle,
who played for the Phillies from August 9, 2004, to July 30, 2006.

Phillies manager Charlie Manuel was
not in an enviable posistion on Saturday. 
Needing to choose a Game 3 starter, his first choice, rookie left-hander
J.A. Happ, who had missed bats all year to the tune of a 2.93 ERA, was injured,
having taken a line drive off the shin during Thursday’s Game 2.  His second choice, righty Joe Blanton
had been used in relief of Cole Hamels in Game 2.  In a stroke of desperation, Manuel was forced to turn to
veteran Pedro Martinez for the crucial start.

            But
luckily for the Phillies, God was a Phillies fan on Saturday.  A Snowstorm pushed Game 3 to Sunday
night.  This  decision benefits the Phillies immensely.

            The
unscheduled off day gave Happ an extra day to recover, and he’s been announced
as the starter for tonight.  Also,
the extra day puts the starters from Games 1 and 2, Cliff Lee and Hamels, back
on normal rest.  This would
theoretically allow Lee to pitch Game 4 on Monday.  Long story short, if Happ beats Colorado tonight, Lee will
shut them down again Monday, and the Phillies will get an NLCS rematch with the
Dodgers.

Now I envy Manuel.

One
word: Hitting.  Most people will
try to blame it on the Angels finally getting the Sox’s “number”, but even if
they do, you can’t win if you don’t hit.

         In the regular
season, the Red Sox combined to hit .270/.352/.454, good for second in the AL
with a .806 OPS.  But in the first
two games of the playoffs they’ve plummeted to a hitting line of
.131/.182/.180.  That just won’t
cut it if they are going to beat the Angels, who held opponents to a .242 AVG
this year.

         Normally I’d be
confident about the Red Sox’s chances going back to Fenway for Games 3 and 4,
but Clay Bucholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka don’t inspire confidence.  If I was an Angels fan, I’d be very,
very happy with the situation.

         If the Sox can’t
rely on their pitching, then once again, they must hit.  Facing left-hander Scott Kazmir, their
bats must come to life, or the postseason will continue without the BoSox.

In the past offseason, A.J.
Burnett was handed a 5-year $82.5 million contract to leave the Toronto Blue
Jays for the New York Yankees.  As
with many of the rash, big-money moves that the Yankees make, it hasn’t paid
off, and the absence of Burnett opened a spot for an cheaper, better pitcher in
Toronto.

A.J. Burnett, to put it
mildly, has struggled this year.

2008: 4.07 ERA, 9.39 K/9, 3.5
BB/9, 2.69 K/BB, 0.77 HR/9, 1.34 WHIP, .328 BABIP, 70.5% LOB%, 3.45 FIP

2009: 4.29 ERA, 8.21 K/9,
4.34 BB/9. 1.89 K/BB, 1.16 HR/9, 1.41 WHIP, .295 BABIP, 75.2%, 4.55 FIP

Perhaps I should re-name this
post The Not-So Strange Case Of A.J. Burnett

Following a career year,
Burnett’s numbers regressed dramatically. 
His strikeout rate has come down, his walk rate has gone up, and his
homerun rate has gone up.  This is
even more impressive considering the fact that his BABIP shows he was unlucky
in 2008, and back to normal in 2009. 
Maybe he just has Yankee-Stadium-itis.

Anyhow, up in Toronto, the
‘Jays are paying a rookie who they were criticized for drafting, approximately 16.1
million dollars less than Burnett, to pitch better than Burnett.

A.J. Burnett 2009: 4.29 ERA,
8.21 K/9, 4.34 BB/9. 1.89 K/BB, 1.16 HR/9, 1.41 WHIP, .295 BABIP, 75.2%, 4.55
FIP

Ricky Romero 2009: 3.95 ERA, 6.85
K/9, 3.69 BB/9, 1.86 K/BB, 1.05 HR/9, 1.44 WHIP, .308 BABIP, 4.47 FIP

Stay tuned as the Yankees
free spending continues to carry them to their doom…